While world governments have focused much attention on Covid-related deaths, a lethal new crisis has quietly emerged in America – a startling spike in traffic fatalities. In its October-issued Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities for the First Half of 2021, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) reported that “20,160 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes” from January to June 2021. That’s a massive 18.4% increase compared to the same period in 2020 and a 23.1% increase when comparing only the second quarters (April – June).
These overall figures represent the largest vehicular fatalities surge since 2006, while the second-quarter number is the largest Q2 increase since 1990. What’s causing this unprecedented rise in traffic deaths…and at what point does the escalation constitute a threat to public safety?
What's behind the tragic numbers?
NHTSA followed up with a Continuation of Research on Traffic Safety During the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency. In that report, the administration went back to the year prior, pointing out that “after the declaration of the public health emergency in March 2020, driving patterns and behaviors in the United States changed significantly.”
Changes during that 2020 period included:
- Drivers being more apt to speed,
- Drivers not wearing seat belts,
- Driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs*
*One study found that “~two-thirds of the seriously or fatally injured drivers in their study tested positive for at least one active drug, including alcohol, marijuana, or opioids between mid-March and mid-July 2020.
But while the above helps explain incidents from 2020, it isn’t very helpful in explaining 2021’s dire phenomenon.
Misleading statistics
To complicate things, the Federal Highway Administration (FHA) reported that one cause of the 2021 spike was the sheer number of vehicles on the road.
“Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the first half of 2021 increased by about 173.1 billion miles,” FHA discovered. That’s a roughly 13% increase in VMT 2020. However, the bump may be misleading for two reasons. First, the increase in vehicle miles traveled accounts for only a fraction of the overall rise in fatalities. After all, it’s not as if the entire 13% of extra miles being driven resulted in road collisions.
The second issue goes back to the 2020 stats. The report cites that incidents were caused by “the drivers who remained on the roads” during the early months of the 2020 pandemic lockdowns. The phrasing suggests that due to the lockdowns, many drivers remained home and avoided travel; therefore, causing a reduction in vehicle miles traveled during that period.
In other words, the 2020 VMT stats could have been lower than average, and thus the 13% increase in 2021’s Q1 and Q2 vehicle miles travelled may merely represent a return to what we know as normal. In that case, the 13% VMT increase is barely a factor at all. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s report seems to bear this out, writing, “In the first half of 2021, data suggest that trip-taking rebounded but had not reverted to levels seen before March 2020.” Â
What's really causing the rise in fatalities?
NHTSA’s Continuation of Research report focuses so much on 2019 and 2020 that the causes of the 2021 crisis seem unresolved. The summary suggests that research isn’t entirely conclusive on exactly what has caused the current spikes in vehicular fatalities other than a substantial escalation of the same problems that occurred in the years before. As a result, it is difficult to gauge whether the increase poses an actual threat to public safety.
However, common sense and a few definitions should help us arrive at a conclusion.
Does the increase in fatalities pose a threat to public safety?
As noted by World Scientific News, “The first step to counter a threat [to public safety] is its proper identification.” Thus it may be useful to broadly define “public safety” and “threats” to it.
US Legal cites that “Public Safety refers to the welfare and protection of the general public. It is usually expressed as a governmental responsibility.” Meanwhile, Law Insider specifies that a Threat to Public Safety…means anything which is injurious to the safety or health of an entire community or neighborhood, or any considerable number of persons…”
Assuming we accept these broad definitions, we most likely agree that 20,160 is a “considerable number.” If we also agree that vehicle users are members of the general public, then it seems fair to say that, by definition, the increase in fatalities is indeed a threat to public safety.Â
The government's stance
Secretary of Transportation, Pete Buttigieg, noted that the record-breaking statistics indicate a “crisis” demanding action from “all levels of government, industries, advocates, engineers, and communities.” His response included the announcement of the creation of a National Roadway Safety Strategy with details forthcoming.
Meanwhile, months before the NHTSA’s findings and the Department of Transportation’s response, the nonprofit National Safety Council (NSC) was already sounding the alarms. A long-time supporter of addressing roadway risks, NSC repeats NHTSA’s list of the “three biggest causes of fatalities on the road” as “alcohol, speeding, and lack of seat belt use.”
NSC also cites numerous road safety issues such as distracted driving, teen driving, older drivers, issues with advanced driver assistance systems, vehicle recalls, impaired driving, and drowsy driving. Many of these factors were left off NHTSA’s reports, yet added together, they could undoubtedly contribute to 2021’s high vehicular death rates.
In its open letter to the Biden administration, the National Safety Council invited the President to help end traffic deaths by partnering with the Road to Zero initiative. Touted as a “Plan to Eliminate Roadway Deaths,” Road to Zero was created in collaboration with many other organizations and published a RAND-written report detailing its “strategies to end roadway deaths in the U.S. by 2050.”
Vehicles used as weapons
Though it currently accounts for a relatively low number of overall vehicle-related fatalities, America is increasingly seeing news reports of intentional vehicle ramming (“the deliberate aiming of a motor vehicle at individuals with the intent to inflict fatal injuries or cause significant property damage”).
The horrific November 21 incident in Waukesha, Wisconsin, has been one of the most high-profile of these crimes (with six dead and dozens more injured), but the terroristic practice has been on the rise around the world for years. Without a doubt, vehicle ramming poses a unique and challenging threat to public safety, given that vehicles are legal, easily attainable, and capable of inflicting devastating mass casualties within seconds.
Police chases
Often seen exaggerated in movies, high-speed police car chases are very real and extremely dangerous to pedestrians and other drivers on the road. USA Today reported that “5,000 bystanders and passengers have been killed in police car chases since 1979,” with “tens of thousands more were injured.”
While the circumstances for these events may have sometimes warranted pursuit, the article goes on to cite that many instances occurred due to minor infractions. NHTSA’s reports did not appear to take these figures into account, perhaps because the 2021 numbers were deemed too low. Still, many of these chase-related citizen casualties could have been prevented. The problem deserves added scrutiny and action for the sake of public safety.
